دانلود ترجمه مقاله ارزیابی های تازه از نداشتن قطعیت پیش بینی درآمد
عنوان فایل ترجمه فارسی: ارزیابی های جدید از عدم قطعیت در پیش بینی سود
عنوان نسخه انگلیسی: A new measure of earnings forecast uncertaint
مرتبط با رشته : حسابداری
تعداد صفحات مقاله فارسی: ۲۵ صفحه
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shows that dispersion alone tends to understate uncertainty, especially at longer horizons. BKLS Uncertainty, on the other hand, tends to become unduly volatile in periods of unanticipated significant events and understates uncertainty in other periods. In contrast, the new measure gives an appropriate measure of uncertainty faced by financial analysts under these circumstances. For a further comparison, we test the hypothesis that analysts rely more on reported earnings to revise their forecasts when the ex ante uncertainty in future earnings is relatively high. Since our uncertainty measure is expected to be superior to the other two especially at longer horizons, we predict that the positive relation between forecast revisions and earnings surprises is stronger when uncertainty is measured by the new proxy. Our empirical results are consistent with this prediction and provide further evidence of the appropriateness and superiority of the new empirical proxy. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses two commonly used proxies for uncertainty and proposes a new measure. Section 3 describes the empirical experiment and presents the estimation results. Section 4 concludes. Additional details on the GARCH model estimation are provided in Appendix A.
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